The Stock Market Moose
14Jul/100

China on the move

China has responded to it's cue to devalue it's currency. However the new money it's printing isn't going to be tied up in bureaucratic battles for years or decades as most of the developed nations attempts to spend the economy back to health are.

I can't speak for individual citizens, but for a country as a whole China is far outperforming the majority in economic terms. It's making financial decisions similar to those of global monetary entities. Strategically subsidizing international projects which are bound to repay massive dividends.

A recent example is China's decision to subsidize a 10 billion dollar rail project in Argentina. The main publicized motivation is to give China an opportunity to further develop it's high-speed rail technology. Why not keep it to them self? One of the most obvious reasons is to promote it's brands. If this project is a success, which it has a great likelihood of being, you can bet who other South American countries will goto for high-speed rail systems. Another major benefactor of this proposal is China's diplomatic value. A Chinese ban of Argentina's soy has been brushed under the rug for now. There are more than a few other positive impacts the strategic economic play will have in store for China.

Lots of growth seems almost certain, but keep in mind a less developed economy is more likely to be turbulent. A pretty sizable chunk of my portfolio is made up of Chinese companies (over 10%). If good publicity like this keeps coming over the next decade, then I could easily see that composition being more like 20% to 25%. It's definitely possible to find companies from there with steady long term dividends and earnings records. It's a very tempting market, but the good times could end up having a mirage aftertaste.

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