details
Not long ago I received a follow up email from an employment inquiry. It was pretty wordy. Two things I remember from it were that it said "attention to detail" is a must. At some other point they miss-used "i.e."[latin abbreviation which approximately translates to "in other words"] when they meant "e.g."[latin abbreviation which approximately translates to "for example"].
the first loan
a lot of new cult classics point this out. It's pretty interesting.
banking started as a way to have paper receipts for assets that weighed more(e.g. gold).
partial(or fractional) reserve banking started when bankers realized they PROBABLY never needed 100% of the assets in their reserves, because a lot of the time they just set there.
theoretically fractional reserve banking could start with zero assets. Here is how it would work:
a bank loans a person 100 dollars at a 10% per year interest rate. The principal can be paid back, but the interest can never be paid back, because there isn't an extra 10% of some made up currency floating around anywhere unless you take counter fitters into account.
it's pretty useless to point fingers. it's probably giving bankers the benefit of the doubt to say it was inevitable, but there are bad choices made in every profession (I'm pretty sure pharmaceutical companies are guilty of equally bad things [you had a cough for a day? how about a $500 x-ray and a $250 anti-biotic?]).
In fact, there are some really good things caused by fractional reserve banking: it stimulated a lot of trade, and motivated a lot of people to do a lot of things in general.
If fractional reserve banking was never invented, there would still be rich people who would have major advantages. The richest of people today happen to be able to become richer by printing money - much less controversial than pillaging.
nepotism is not competitive, it's a form of stagnation.
If the richest people were consistently the greatest at leading then everyone would be happy. But they aren't. I have a feeling a large portion of old wealth descendants are contributing things about as elaborate as a quadruple cheese burger to society.
The problem, that has happened many times in history before, is that wealth needs to be randomly redistributed. Probably the most appropriate word to describe what this would be is "revolution".
It's hard to imagine how any sort of significant revolution could happen these days. The lower half, or so, of society(in economic terms) has been kept pretty content with their positions for a very long time. It seems like it's given the upper half, or so, a lot of time to create things like intelligence agencies, weapons, jails, pay people to run them, etc.
I'm sure every group of people on the forefront of a revolution has had these feelings.
Some times economies are not the central point of a revolution. It seems like it will be the central point of the next one.
Prediction: partial reserve banking will collapse, but I'm not sure how that will keep rich people from still having great advantages.
Crazy prediction: If you study extremely ancient history, you can find signs of matriarchal societies being predominant. I think it could happen again. 2012.
Invest in hair dye and back issues of Cosmopolitan?
...back to now - people who have the *authority*(sovereign nations [most machine guns]) to print new money essentially have a monopoly over anything money can buy. If too much new money is printed too fast it will be considered monopoly money - pun intended.
It's relatively boring to comprehend, but the number of people who are aware of it is growing. Greece, and most of South America for example.
Moose Pick TNE
TNE's price to book is somewhat lower than it's historical average. Even so 0.8 is decent, but there are more likely better bargains.
TNE's P/E is only slenderly lower than it's historical average. 10.8 P/E makes TNE look like a great purchase. And price to book is extremely attractive. Looks like a swell buy overall.
TNE's cash from operating is positive, which is swell. It also is growing, which is very great. Tne's net cash change is positive, which is outstanding. Yet it is not growing, which is not so keen.
TNE's price is considerably lower than it's 20 day moving average. The most reasonable of technical analysis theories would suggest there is about an 80% chance TNE's price will correct itself, meaning it will go up. If the fundamental analysis is also good for this one, then it's probably as good a time as any to go long.
Tele Norte Leste Participacoes 's Moose Rating: 84%
This pick was made June 27, 2011.
Please keep in mind it is very important to review fundamental variables such as market cap, long term earnings history, and long term dividend history from many financial resources.
Moose Pick LPHI
The price to book ratio for LPHI is considerably lower than it's historical average. Nevertheless 1.0 is at best mediocre. May be acceptable for an extremely well known business. Otherwise it's probably best to put your money elsewhere.
The P/E ratio for LPHI is considerably lower than it's historical average. 2.4 P/E makes LPHI look like a outstanding steal. And price to book is extremely attractive. Looks like a swell buy overall.
LPHI's cash from operating is positive, which is great. It also is growing, which is extremely outstanding. Lphi's net cash change is positive, which is keen. It also is growing, which is extremely keen.
LPHI's price is not too far from it's 20 day moving average. No technical analysis suggestion for lphi.
Life Partners Holdings, Inc.'s Moose Rating: 81%
This pick was made June 27, 2011.
Please keep in mind it is very important to review fundamental variables such as market cap, long term earnings history, and long term dividend history from many financial resources.
Moose Pick BBVA
Wow, look at that Argentinian growth rate. Good for them. I'm going to go ahead and say unsustainable though. I have a pretty strong feeling a lot of the growth is coming from monetary policy with a pretty heavy corruption after-taste. I really like South American countries in general and think they are among the most innovative in social values of developing nations. But I have seen "growth" in these countries a few times before. Most likely lead by a few industries that have started receiving massive amounts of subsidies. Industries that didn't get in bed with politicians will start to feel the heat. They will eventually feel the inflationary burn enough to vote someone else into power. The government cheese program will restructure which takes time.
The price to book ratio for BBVA is considerably lower than it's historical average. Even so 0.9 is at best ordinary. May be acceptable for an very well known business. Otherwise it's probably best to put your money elsewhere.
BBVA's P/E is only slimly lower than it's historical average. 6.5 P/E makes BBVA look like a great bargain. And price to book is extremely attractive. Looks like a swell buy overall.
BBVA's cash from operating is positive, which is keen. However it is not growing, which is not so great. Bbva's net cash change is positive, which is great. Even so it is not growing, which is not so outstanding.
BBVA's price is considerably lower than it's 20 day moving average. The most reasonable of technical analysis theories would suggest there is about an 80% chance BBVA's price will correct itself, meaning it will go up. If the fundamental analysis is also good for this one, then it's probably as good a time as any to go long.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.'s Moose Rating: 81%
This pick was made June 27, 2011.
Please keep in mind it is very important to review fundamental variables such as market cap, long term earnings history, and long term dividend history from many financial resources.
Option Screener
more interesting options
My criteria were out-of-the-money, premiums under 5. These are among the best of the options I scanned (around 3000). Also used a ratio that gauges stock price, how near the money the option is, and premium.
| ticker | stock price | type | mid | strike | premium | intrinsic value | exp date | oi | captured | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSS | 49.45 | call | 0.825 | 55 | 0.825 | -5.55 | 2011-10-22 | 3537 | 2011-06-25 | |||
| KSS | 49.45 | put | 0.95 | 43 | 0.95 | -6.45 | 2011-10-22 | 513 | 2011-06-25 | |||
| NYSE:GS | 130.91 | call | 2.36 | 150 | 2.36 | -19.09 | 2011-10-22 | 21848 | 2011-06-25 | |||
| NYSE:GS | 130.91 | put | 2.505 | 110 | 2.505 | -20.91 | 2011-10-22 | 1400 | 2011-06-25 | |||
I trimmed the list to options that had good straddle/strangle compliments. It seems like this would be an optimal screen if you were looking to go long volatility, so a long straddle or strangle would be an appropriate strategy.
interesting options
here are some options that have great intrinsic value in relation to their premium. Most of them have fairly low open interest, which means there could easily be a hidden premium when you buy or sell these. I just made this new screening tool that makes it easy to find values like these. It's not currently publicly available.
| ticker | stock price | type | mid | strike | intrinsic value | expiration date | oi | captured | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCBK | 7.94 | call | 1.95 | 6 | 1.94 | 2011-10-22 | 102 | 2011-06-25 | ||||
| HCBK | 7.94 | put | 9.55 | 17.5 | 9.56 | 2012-01-21 | 99 | 2011-06-25 | ||||
| ANDE | 39.82 | put | 15 | 55 | 15.18 | 2011-09-17 | 23 | 2011-06-25 | ||||
| ANDE | 39.82 | call | 17.3 | 22.5 | 17.32 | 2011-09-17 | 24 | 2011-06-25 |
Stock Options screener
update: option screener now available link
I've been working on an options screener thats similar to finviz or google finances stock screener. Below is a screen capture to show the kind of data, filtering, and sorting features it has. Of the few options screeners available, I think this one offers the most useful and intuitive interface, and data-columns. This screener in no way takes the risks out of options trading, but it does let you easily make comparisons of fundamental option characteristics. Easily interpretable premium and intrinsic value columns make it easy for you to understand risks and rewards of prospective trades. If you are interested in receiving optimally formatted options screens please respond to this post. Every time I release a new finance gadget, such as this one, it takes a while for it to catch on. So I think I will leisurely get to the few final touches, atleast until this post starts getting some activity.
-The Stock Market Moose
Moose Pick SFG
SFG's price to book is slimly lower than it's historical average. Nevertheless 1.0 is at best fair. May be acceptable for an extremely well known business. Otherwise it's probably best to put your money elsewhere.
SFG's P/E is only slimly lower than it's historical average. 11.0 P/E makes SFG look like a great buy. Yet The price to book is not that attractive, which is means it's probably best to keep looking.
SFG's cash from operating is positive, which is great. Yet it is not growing, which is not so keen. Sfg's net cash change is positive, which is outstanding. Even so it is not growing, which is not so keen.
SFG's price is not too far from it's 20 day moving average. No technical analysis suggestion for sfg.
StanCorp Financial Group Inc.'s Moose Rating: 74%
This pick was made June 20, 2011.
Please keep in mind it is very important to review fundamental variables such as market cap, long term earnings history, and long term dividend history from many financial resources.
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